Portfolio Stress Lab

Housing bubble collapse triggered a global banking crisis. S&P 500 fell 57% peak-to-trough.

Oil fell 70%. Energy devastated, HY spreads blew out. Broad equity impact moderate.

Fastest 30%+ decline in history — five weeks peak to trough. Also the fastest recovery.

Both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously. 60/40 had its worst year since 1937.

Rates spike 300bp in 12 months. Intermediate bonds lose 12-15%, long duration crushed ~30%. Floating rate and short duration outperform.

Inverted curve persists, then recession hits. Long bonds rally as recession deepens. HY and credit defaults spike. Earnings decline 25-30%.

Oil to $150+, European equities crater, supply chains break. Defense and energy outperform, growth stocks underperform on margin compression.

Broad 25%+ tariffs across major partners. Corporate margins compress 200-300bp. Inflation re-accelerates. Small-cap domestic producers benefit, multinationals suffer.